High stakes but low point total for No. 18 Texas Tech-Oklahoma State, other best best for Monday

Happy Monday, it is good to be back in your inbox. I hope the weekend treated you well, and I hope this week treats you even better. I also hope it treats you better than Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman is preparing to treat his new quarterback Michael Pittman.

During an interview with TMZ Sports, Pittman expressed his excitement about playing with Wentz in Indianapolis and that the Colts have a “stable quarterback situation.” But Pittman also made it clear to Wentz that he’d like a stable number situation as well. You see, Wentz has won the No. 11 in his career, and Pittman wore it as a rookie last season. He has no plans to give it up.

Now, is it possible this is just the beginning of negotiations? Maybe. Remember, around this time last year, Tampa Bay receiver Chris Godwin said he wasn’t going to give up the No. 12 for Tom Brady. Eventually, Brady made a deal with him: if Godwin gave him the No. 12, they’d win a Super Bowl. Godwin gave him the number, and we know how that turned out.

Still, I don’t think Carson Wentz should go promising anybody any Super Bowls just yet.

Elsewhere today:

Did you know that you can’t spell Monday without four of the five letters in money? Let’s go get some! Money. Not Monday. We already have Monday.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

No. 18 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 138 (-110): Can you smell it in the air? March is nearly here, which means it’s almost conference tournament season, and after conference tournaments, it’s the NCAA Tournament. This game will go a long way in seeding for the Big 12 conference, as Oklahoma State comes into the game at 7-6 in the Big 12 while Texas Tech is 6-6. Winning this game could prove to be the difference between a first-round bye or needing to win four games to win the conference tournament, so there’s quite a bit on the line.

And it’s also a game in which the total is a tad too high. When these teams met earlier this season, Oklahoma State won 82-77 in overtime, but the score was 68-68 at the end of regulation. I think we’ll see a similar situation in the rematch, where we should finish under this total barring another overtime. It also needs to be mentioned that Oklahoma State shot 42.1% from three (8/19) in the first game, but the Cowboys have shot only 34% from three on the season. These are two teams that are better defensively than offensively, and I expect this one to be close and probably a bit ugly.

Key Trend: The under is 9-4 in Oklahoma State’s last 13 home games against teams with a winning record.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: Do the Advanced Computer Model and I agree, or is this a situation that requires the two of us to fight until the death? Find out!

💰 The Picks

🏀 NBA

Heat at Thunder, 9 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Over 212 (-110) — There’s value on the over here with Oklahoma City playing for the second day in a row and Miami finishing up a seven-game road trip that began 11 days ago. That should lead to some tired legs for both teams, particularly on the defensive end. That offsets the fact that the Heat rank 25th in the league in offensive efficiency, which is ahead of Oklahoma City in 29th. I’d recommend waiting on this one, though, because there’s a decent chance the total will drop as we get closer to tip, and I’m good with the over anywhere up until 214.5.

Key Trend: The over has gone 7-0 on the second leg of Oklahoma City’s last seven back-to-backs.

⚽ Champions League

Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea, Tuesday, 3 p.m. | TV: CBS All Access
The Pick: Atletico Madrid (+170) — Since new manager Thomas Tuchel took over, Chelsea has been magnificent defensively, with only 2.5 expected goals (xG) in six matches (I don’t have xG data for the FA Cup win over Barnsley), never allowing more than 0.7 xG in one single match. This is primarily due to Chelsea having the ball nearly the entire match, as it has dominated possession under Tuchel.

Of course, it needs to be pointed out that Chelsea haven’t played the stiffest of competition since the switch. They dominated Tottenham, but Tottenham’s a mess, and they drew 1-1 with Southampton over the weekend. Atletico Madrid poses the most significant challenge Tuchel will have faced since taking over. Having this come in his first Champions League match with his new team presents an extra challenge.

As for Atletico, it’s not at its best right now. It enters this match having won only one of its last four. It’s coming off a 2-0 loss to Levante on Saturday (only three days after a 1-1 draw with the same Levante), but the xG numbers show that Atleti hasn’t been playing too differently from what it had been doing when it was playing well enough to earn the top spot in Spain’s La Liga. And that’s one of the reasons I see plenty of value on Madrid here, even with this match being played in Bucharest instead of Madrid (travel restrictions due to COVID).

Furthermore, Chelsea’s tendency to dominate the ball won’t bother Atletico much. They’re a counterattacking side and are more than happy to defend and take their chances when they come. I think they take advantage often enough to put value on them at this price.

Key Trend: Chelsea has failed to win 10 straight UCL knockout stage matches, with its last win coming against PSG in 2014.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Our proprietary European soccer model is up more than $8,900, and now it’s released its picks for the first-leg in the Champions League match between Lazio and Bayern Munich.

💸 The DFS Rundown