This season has been unlike anything we have ever experienced in college football. Computer simulations — if that’s your thing — mean nothing as only a smattering of nonconference games between FBS schools have taken place while four of the leagues have not played any at all. Nevertheless, we must work with what we have.
Each week, I use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I also throw in an upset of the week, which features a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright. I also usually give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams, but that will not be the case here in Week 15 with so few CFP contenders in action.
Last week I was 2-0-1 on the picks, but missed the upset special. The picks are 15-13 for the season. The upset missed, so those picks are now 4-6 outright and 6-4 ATS. We have nothing but big lines this week.
Week 15 picks
No. 1 Alabama at Arkansas
Arkansas got off to a pretty good start this season, including a three-game stretch where it beat the Mississippi schools sandwiched around a loss to Auburn in which the Razorbacks were robbed. They have not won since beating Tennessee to start November, however. Bama has been a machine, grinding up every team the Tide comes across. Lines like this usually scare me off, but not when Alabama is involved. Pick: Alabama (-32)
LSU at No. 6 Florida
The Tigers are on the wrong end of another big line. Teams are lining up to get their shots in at LSU while they can, and Florida is next. After an indifferent performance against Tennessee, the Gators look to sharpen things up ahead of the SEC Championship Game next week. Pick: Florida (-23)
Akron at Buffalo
This is also a big line, but the difference in the quality of these teams is even greater than the difference between Alabama and Arkansas. The Bulls will be itching to get back on the field after having last week’s game canceled. Pick: Buffalo (-32.5)
Upset of the week
Navy at Army
A quick glance at the records and it’s no wonder Army is a touchdown favorite, but Navy has faced a much tougher schedule. As an independent, Army had to piece together what it could. Three of its wins have come against FCS competition, and a fourth is over UL Monroe which is ranked 125th out of 127 in our FBS rankings. Navy, meanwhile, has had to grind through the AAC. They do have a common opponent, though. Tulane smoked Army 38-12 a few weeks ago, while Navy beat the Green Wave 27-24 early in the season. Pick: Navy (+7)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 15? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned over $3,500 in profit over the past four-plus seasons — and find out.
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