2020 Armed Force Bowl odds, line: Mississippi State vs. Tulsa picks, predictions from model on 56-36 run

The 24th-ranked Tulsa Golden Hurricane could finish the season with their highest ranking in almost 30 years if they get past the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 2020 Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas. Tulsa (6-2) finished the 2008 season ranked 24th and ended the 1991 campaign at No. 21, so a win against an SEC team could propel them higher. The game will be a battle between the stifling defense of Tulsa against the innovative passing attack of the Bulldogs (3-7) led by freshman quarterback Will Rogers and coach Mike Leach. 

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Golden Hurricane are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Mississippi State vs. Tulsa odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 45.5. Before making any Tulsa vs. Mississippi State picks, check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters bowl season a sizzling 56-36 on all top-rated picks, returning over $400. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mississippi State vs. Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl 2020. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Tulsa vs. Mississippi State:

• Tulsa vs. Mississippi State: Golden Hurricane -1.5
• Tulsa vs. Mississippi State over-under: 45.5
• Tulsa vs. Mississippi State moneyline: Golden Hurricane -120, Bulldogs +100
• Tulsa: RB Corey Taylor has rushed for 303 yards on 60 carries over the past three games.
• Miss. St.: QB Will Rogers has 956 passing yards and seven TDs over the past three games.

Why Tulsa can cover

Tulsa is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven bowl games, and the defense will be able to focus on stopping the passing game. The unit allows 145.8 yards per game on the ground, but MSU averages just 36 (last in FBS). The passing defense ranks 22nd (194.1), and the unit could rattle Rogers, who has been sacked 16 times and has thrown seven interceptions in seven games. Jaxon Player and Anthony Goodlow have three sacks apiece for a unit that has 19.

The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite, and the offense has talent at every position. Quarterback Zach Smith threw for 1,600 yards and 12 TDs, with six of those to Josh Johnson. JuanCarlos Santana averaged 14.4 yards per catch, while Keylon Stokes led the team with 527 yards and tied Johnson with a team-high 37 receptions. Running backs Corey Taylor and Deneric Prince both have more than 400 yards and gain more than five yards per carry.  

Why Mississippi State can cover

Mississippi State is 4-1 against the spread in its past five Thursday games, and the young team seems to be improving in Leach’s first season. The offense ranks 16th in the nation in passing yards behind Rogers, who has thrown for 1,828 yards in seven games (five starts). Three receivers have more than 40 catches, and running back Jo’quavious Marks has 56. Jaden Walley was named to the SEC’s All-Freshman team after catching 48 passes for 691 yards.

Cornerback Emmanuel Forbes also made the All-Freshman team after he picked off four passes for the Bulldogs in the regular season. Linebacker Erroll Thompson is the heart of the defense, posting a team-high 87 tackles, two sacks and an interception. Tyrus Wheat, who has 4.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and two recoveries, and Aaron Brule, with 3.5 sacks, also are difference-makers from their linebacker spots. MSU has 20 sacks and 16 takeaways.  

How to make Mississippi State vs. Tulsa picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, suggesting the teams will score just 40 points combined. It also says one side of the spread is hitting in 70 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Tulsa vs. Mississippi State? And which side of the spread hits 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Mississippi State vs. Tulsa spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 56-36 run on its top-rated college football picks this season.